- The IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva warns sustained high oil prices of $120-$130 per barrel risk tipping the global economy into a technical recession.
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil movement, is a primary driver of supply losses exceeding 12 million barrels per day.
- Depleting global inventories are creating upward pressure on prices, with U.S. consumers already facing gasoline prices above $4 and reaching $5.6 per gallon in Hawaii.
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports global oil supply fell by a further 1.8 million barrels per day in April.
- Brent crude has surged 41% to $108 since the U.S.-Iran conflict began on February 28.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on Wednesday that surging oil prices threaten to push the global economy into a recession, as a prolonged war between the U.S. and Iran disrupts supplies. Consequently, the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz has reduced global oil movement by roughly one-fifth, depleting inventories at a record pace according to reports.
Georgieva stated that if prices remain between $120 and $130 per barrel through 2027, a technical recession could occur. However, current oil prices already sit at $106.84, with Brent crude having surged 41% since the conflict began on February 28.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in its May report that global oil supply declined by a further 1.8 million barrels per day in April. Consequently, total supply losses have reached 12.8 million barrels per day since the war’s start.
In its worst-case scenario, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees oil averaging $110 per barrel this year with global GDP growing just 2%. Meanwhile, U.S. consumers are feeling the pinch as gasoline prices climb above $4 nationwide.
Gas prices in Hawaii have already surpassed the $5 mark, reaching $5.6 per gallon. The IEA suggests there is a solid chance that oil prices could rise further over the summer due to rapidly depleting inventories.
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