- BNP Paribas initiated coverage of Tesla with an ‘Underperform’ rating and set a price target of $307.
- This price target signals a potential 29% drop from Tesla’s last closing price.
- Barclays raised its target on Tesla to $350 but maintained an ‘Equal Weight’ rating.
- Analysts noted high expectations for Tesla’s AI-led Robotaxi and Optimus businesses, which currently have no revenue.
- Tesla shares fell 2% following these analyst updates, while recent retail investor sentiment remained bearish.
Shares of Tesla drew strong interest on Thursday after two major banks released new analyst reports on the stock. BNP Paribas Exane analyst James Picariello initiated coverage, giving the automaker an ‘Underperform’ rating and a price target of $307. Barclays kept its ‘Equal Weight’ rating, but increased its target price on the stock to $350 from $275.
Picariello’s $307 estimate suggests about 29% downside compared to Tesla’s closing price on Wednesday. He explained that Tesla’s large valuation of $1.02 trillion is mostly based on the future potential of its AI-focused Robotaxi service and Optimus robot business. These two ventures currently deliver no sales. Picariello added, “We take an optimistic view toward both,” but suggested that market expectations for 2026 are “far too high.”
The base outlook from BNP Paribas factors in a fleet of 525,000 Robotaxis by 2030 and 17 million cumulative Optimus deliveries by 2040, though these estimates are embedded in a cautious near-term view.
At the same time, Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects a third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) beat for Tesla, citing strong margins and volume. However, Levy noted, “We are leaning neutral to slightly negative into the print following a recent rally, given our muted view on fundamentals going forward.”
Following these updates, Tesla shares traded about 2% lower. Over the past year, the stock has risen roughly 93%, although it is up by 6% in 2025. Retail sentiment regarding Tesla remained bearish over the last 24 hours, with message volume at low levels. For more on broader market changes, see this industry update.
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