- April 2 marks “Liberation Day” when Trump’s administration will implement 20%+ tariffs on imports from 25+ countries, with potentially more to follow, driving market anxiety.
- Markets exhibited classic risk-off behavior with S&P 500 dropping 3.5%, Gold reaching record highs above $3,150, and Bitcoin falling 6% as investors seek safer assets.
- Despite Bitcoin’s current correlation with tech stocks (70% with Nasdaq), institutional adoption is growing with public companies holding 5.5% of total BTC supply, signaling potential evolution into a reserve asset.
U.S. markets displayed clear signs of risk aversion last week as traders reacted to imminent tariffs and economic uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 3.5% while gold prices surged to unprecedented levels above $3,150 per ounce. Bitcoin’s 6% decline amid this volatility raises questions about its evolving role – is it still primarily a tech proxy or gradually transforming into the digital gold that proponents have long championed?
April 2 looms as a critical date for global trade, with U.S. President Donald Trump designating it as "Liberation Day" – when new tariffs exceeding 20% will affect imports from more than 25 countries. According to The Wall Street Journal, the administration is considering "broader and higher tariffs" beyond this initial implementation, suggesting prolonged economic uncertainty ahead.
The market response has been unmistakable. Beyond the S&P 500’s decline, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 5% last week. Meanwhile, traditionally safe assets strengthened, with 10-year Treasury yields falling to 4.2% despite recent inflation data showing increases in core components. These movements represent classic indicators of a risk-off environment – often a precursor to economic contraction.
Gold Shines as Investors Seek Safety
Gold has emerged as a standout performer amid the uncertainty. The precious metal has attracted over $12 billion in net inflows to gold funds over the past two months, according to Bloomberg data – the largest capital surge into the asset since 2020.
Year-to-date performance tells a compelling story, with gold prices rising nearly 17% while the S&P 500 has declined 5%. This divergence coincides with deteriorating U.S. consumer sentiment, which has fallen approximately 20 points to levels unseen since 2008. In March, only 37.4% of Americans expected stock prices to increase over the next year – down almost 10 points from February.
As financial newsletter The Kobeissi Letter put it, "An economic slowdown has clearly begun."
Bitcoin’s Dual Identity in Focus
Bitcoin’s performance during this market turbulence reveals its continuing evolution. A chart from Matrixport shows that BlackRock‘s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) now demonstrates 70% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 – a level reached only twice previously. This suggests that macroeconomic forces still heavily influence Bitcoin’s short-term price movements, similar to technology stocks.
ETF flows support this observation. After strong inflows earlier, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $93 million on March 28, according to CoinGlass. Total Bitcoin ETP assets under management have declined to $114.5 billion, representing the lowest level in 2025.
Institutional Adoption Signals Long-Term Shift
Despite short-term volatility, structural changes indicate Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as a treasury reserve asset. According to Tipranks, public companies and individual investors own 80.8% of BlackRock’s IBIT shares. In February, BlackRock incorporated a 1-2% allocation of IBIT into its target allocation portfolios, reflecting institutional confidence.
Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows publicly listed companies currently hold 665,618 BTC, while private firms hold 424,130 BTC. Together, these 1,089,748 BTC represent approximately 5.5% of the total Bitcoin supply (excluding lost coins).
Elliot Chun, partner at crypto-focused M&A firm Architect Partners, projected in a March 28 blog post: "I anticipate that by 2030, a quarter of the S&P 500 will have BTC somewhere on their balance sheets as a long-term asset."
While Bitcoin’s current price movements suggest it hasn’t yet achieved safe-haven status comparable to gold, the increasing institutional adoption indicates an asset in transition. As Bitcoin continues to gain acceptance across corporations, governments, and individual investors, its volatility may decrease while its utility as a partial hedge against economic uncertainty potentially increases.
For the moment, Bitcoin’s role as a safe haven remains aspirational rather than established – but the foundations for such a transformation appear to be steadily forming.
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