- Crypto traders anticipate a rally in Bitcoin and risk assets if oil prices decline amid easing geopolitical tensions with Iran.
- Analysts Michaël van de Poppe and Ted Pillows argue Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $65,000 during an active war demonstrates underlying market strength.
- The bullish thesis depends on lower oil prices, but the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, and a full reopening could be months away.
Crypto traders entered the weekend positioning for a relief rally on the view that the Iran conflict was winding down and oil prices would follow, but diplomatic signals moved in the opposite direction. Iran held off on strikes, and the U.S. had not attacked for days, with Brent crude dropping 10% to $87, paving the way for a positive week, according to analyst Michaël van de Poppe.
“This will benefit Bitcoin and crypto ‘bigly,’” van de Poppe said on Sunday. In a separate post, the MNFund Founder explained that Bitcoin had not yet broken critical resistance but assumed it would as oil retreated, arguing that BTC holding $65,000 through an active war demonstrated underlying market strength.
Meanwhile, analyst Ted Pillows made a similar call, saying that if the pause held, oil could fall sharply and markets would rally. Bitcoin’s price rose by 0.8% over the past 24 hours, though retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained in the neutral zone with chatter at low levels.
However, the trade’s weak link emerged over the weekend. The United States and Iran on Sunday delivered responses to a Qatari-Pakistani proposal that would have Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its port blockade and sanctions, according to Al Arabiya. Iran suspended talks and rejected the creation of a new corridor through the strait.
Consequently, the choke point remains as constrained as it has been for months. “I don’t think we’ll see the Strait of Hormuz open until next year,” Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, told CNBC on Friday. Before the conflict, the waterway carried 20 million barrels per day but has since slowed to a trickle, driving crude to multi-week highs and U.S. gasoline prices 38% higher since February.
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