- TRM Labs data shows prediction markets surged to $36.6B in Q1 2026, overtaking onchain gambling’s $14B.
- Both sectors grew rapidly in 2025, reaching $54B and $51B respectively, and remained resilient during the market correction.
- While sharing stablecoin infrastructure, gambling faces greater money laundering risks, while prediction markets are scrutinized for insider trading.
- Volume is heavily concentrated among “High Rollers,” but “Casual Bettors” and “Daily Grinders” are the fastest-growing user cohorts.
Prediction markets have surpassed onchain gambling for the first time, reaching $36.6 billion in volume during the first quarter of 2026, according to a new report from blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs. This shift occurred despite onchain gambling holding strong at a near-record $14 billion in the same period. The broader crypto market correction did not dampen activity in either sector.
Both categories saw explosive growth throughout 2025. Consequently, prediction markets hit $54 billion for the year, while gambling reached $51 billion. A TRM Labs spokesperson attributed gambling’s resilience to the “sticky and expanding activity of a loyal user base.”
However, the two sectors face distinct financial crime risks. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are peer-to-peer prediction markets vulnerable to insider trading. Meanwhile, casino-style platforms such as Stake, WINk, and Rollbit carry higher money laundering exposure.
User analysis reveals volume remains heavily concentrated. “High Rollers,” just 6.3% of personal wallets, drove over 91% of personal gambling volume since 2022. Nonetheless, “Casual Bettors” and “Daily Grinders” are now the fastest-growing segments by volume.
✅ Follow BITNEWSBOT on Telegram, Facebook, LinkedIn, X.com, and Google News for instant updates.
