- Polymarket traders place only a 28% chance of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returning by April 30, despite a formal ceasefire.
- Shipping traffic remains below 5% of pre-conflict levels due to persistent security threats, with BIMCO advising vessels to avoid the area entirely.
- Prediction markets on Myriad show a 63.2% probability of Brent crude oil surging to $120, reflecting bets on prolonged market disruption.
- An extended closure could have severe economic consequences, with Dallas Fed research estimating it could reduce global GDP growth by 2.9 percentage points.
Despite a ceasefire announcement on April 8, the critical Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to oil tankers, with prediction markets showing just 28% confidence in a return to normalcy by month’s end. The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis began in late February and caused the fastest oil price spike in modern history.
However, the diplomatic progress failed to translate to physical safety on the water. The global shipping association BIMCO has warned that the strait is “not declared safe for transit,” citing uncleared mine threats Iran-trump-strait-hormuz-oil-tanker-traffic.html”>according to CNBC. Consequently, vessel traffic is still more than 95% below its pre-war volume.
Meanwhile, traders on prediction platforms are betting on continued instability. A market on Myriad prices a 63.2% chance that Brent crude oil pumps to $120 per barrel. Another market suggests a 70.5% probability that President Trump announces an end to military operations before June, despite him stating he “will not be rushed” as reported by the New York Post.
Iran also briefly imposed crypto tolls, reportedly collecting Bitcoin-oil-tankers/”>up to $2 million per vessel in Bitcoin and stablecoins. The ongoing disruption carries massive economic stakes, with research suggesting a full-quarter closure could severely impact global GDP growth.
✅ Follow BITNEWSBOT on Telegram, Facebook, LinkedIn, X.com, and Google News for instant updates.
