- Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act plunged to 16% on Monday after key Senate Democrats rejected a revised Republican ethics proposal.
- Senators Warner, Warnock, and Gallego called the offer insufficient, with Democrats preparing a counterproposal that was sent to Republican negotiators.
- Opposition also emerged from the Indian Gaming Association and eight banking trade groups, adding uncertainty ahead of a procedural vote.
On Monday, the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 on Polymarket fell sharply to 16% after key Senate Democrats said Republicans’ “final” ethics offer had not swayed them, according to the prediction market. The odds had briefly risen to 35% following a revised proposal with expanded ethics provisions, but confidence quickly eroded as reservations mounted.
Senator Mark Warner said the revised ethics provision was not “near enough,” while Senator Raphael Warnock argued the bill failed to address corruption occurring “in real time.” Senator Ruben Gallego echoed that the offer left “much to be desired” and planned a counterproposal, which Democrats later sent to Republican negotiators.
Meanwhile, the Indian Gaming Association urged member tribes to oppose the bill, citing concerns about prediction markets and preemption of tribal gaming laws. Eight banking trade groups also said the revised text failed to close loopholes for stablecoin rewards, warning that deposit flight from community banks could occur before regulators could act.
The Blockchain Association urged every senator to vote yes, arguing the bill would provide clear rules and prevent crypto jobs from moving overseas. With Republicans needing 60 votes to advance the legislation, the outcome remains uncertain.
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