- New research from Galaxy Digital suggests Bitcoin‘s bear market bottom could be higher than in past cycles, with a potential floor between $53,600 and $62,000.
- The firm’s analysis indicates Bitcoin’s muted market top in October 2025 is leading to a higher potential floor, though key bottoming signals remain absent.
- On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin is in a historic value zone, but spot and futures demand have seen a sharp weekly decline, signaling caution.
- Historical timing suggests a bottom could be ahead, as previous cycle lows formed roughly 12-13 months after the peak; the current drawdown is about eight months old.
New research from Galaxy Digital suggests Bitcoin’s cycle low may form at higher price levels than in previous bear markets, potentially between $62,000 and the network’s realized price of $53,600. Analyst Alex Thorn analyzed historical cycles, noting peak-to-trough declines have narrowed significantly.
The report argues Bitcoin’s October 2025 top was uniquely calm, with few traditional indicators flashing. Consequently, the network’s cost basis sits much higher relative to its all-time high than in prior cycles, raising the potential floor.
However, Thorn notes that only four of thirteen key bottoming signals have triggered so far. Most stronger indicators are still absent, suggesting the market may not have found its ultimate low.
Historical timing also points toward a bottom forming in the coming months. Previous cycle lows occurred roughly 12 to 13 months after the market peak, while the current drawdown is only about eight months old.
Based on the current cost basis, Galaxy estimates a base-case bottom range of $40,000 to $46,000. The firm also outlines deeper and shallower scenarios, warning “the floor can move… in a real panic, coins change hands at a loss and drag the average down.”
Meanwhile, on-chain analysis from CryptoQuant currently places Bitcoin inside a valuation zone linked to past bear-market lows. Past bottoms, including in November 2022, formed at or below the realized price.
Demand data paints a more cautious picture, however. CryptoQuant reported a combined weekly decline of 652,000 BTC across futures and spot demand, marking the sharpest contraction since January 2022.
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