- Markus Thielen of 10x Research calls a $1 million Bitcoin by 2030 “mathematically impossible” based on historical capital inflows.
- Bitcoin would need an additional $15 trillion in capital — roughly 25% of the U.S. stock market’s total value — to reach that price.
- Thielen warns that retail sentiment weakens as Bitcoin’s price rises, with investors preferring to buy whole coins rather than fractions.
- He argues that bold $1 million forecasts from executives like Brian Armstrong and Cathie Wood generate media attention but can hurt retail investors.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, told Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets that the oft-cited prediction of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030 is mathematically impossible. “It’s mathematically impossible,” Thielen said, noting that Bitcoin has attracted roughly $1 trillion in total historical inflows to build its current market cap of about $1.28 trillion — with the asset trading at $63,868, according to CoinMarketCap.
To reach $1 million per Bitcoin, Thielen calculates that the cryptocurrency would need to attract another $15 trillion in capital — equivalent to approximately 25% of the entire U.S. stock market’s value. “It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price really materially higher,” he explained, calling billion-dollar price targets unrealistic.
The analyst also highlighted a psychological barrier: as Bitcoin’s price rises, retail investors become less willing to buy fractions of the asset. “People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin,” Thielen said, adding that the term “Satoshis” lacks the appeal of “Bitcoin.” Consequently, he warned that Bitcoin may not rebound as quickly as in past cycles, and a new all-time high of $126,000 may not reappear soon. “If we go back to, let’s say, $100K, that would already be a big achievement,” he noted.
Prominent figures including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, and Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood have predicted $1 million Bitcoin by 2030. Thielen argued such round numbers are quoted widely by the press but can mislead retail investors who assume even partial success will yield huge gains. Brian Armstrong is among those who have made the forecast. Thielen declined to say $1 million will never happen, but noted it would require a major credit event — “implosion of everything.”
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