- Galaxy Digital now estimates only a 10% chance the CLARITY Act will pass in 2026.
- Unresolved issues include ethics, stablecoin yields, and developer protections.
- The Senate faces a narrow two-to-three week window starting Sept. 14.
Galaxy Digital has dramatically lowered its estimate of the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act’s chances of passing in 2026 to just 10%, citing multiple unresolved political hurdles. The firm warned that when the Senate reconvenes on Sept. 14, lawmakers will have only about two to three weeks to advance the legislation.
Unless an initial motion to proceed vote occurs immediately upon lawmakers’ return, there would be enough time for the bill to pass only if it “dominates basically the entire working session,” Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, wrote in a Friday X post. Consequently, the timeline leaves very little margin for error.
Galaxy highlighted that multiple political issues remain unresolved, including ethics concerns, stablecoin yield frameworks, and developer protection mandates. Meanwhile, the narrow Senate window amplifies the risk that the bill could stall entirely if partisan disagreements surface.
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