- Bitcoin’s current decline is less severe than past bear markets, down roughly 52% from its October 2025 peak instead of 80% or more.
- The cryptocurrency has stayed above its aggregate cost basis of ~$54,000, avoiding the deep capitulation seen in earlier cycles.
- Growing institutional ownership and ETF inflows are making the market more resilient, though the traditional four-year halving cycle remains intact.
- 21Shares‘ base-case outlook calls for Bitcoin to recover toward $100,000 by year-end, rather than immediately setting new all-time highs.
In its June State of Crypto report, asset manager 21Shares analyzed Bitcoin’s market structure amid a roughly 52% price decline from its October 2025 peak. The firm, which manages over $11 billion, noted this downturn remains far milder than the 80% or greater declines of previous bear cycles.
One key distinction is that Bitcoin has held above its aggregate cost basis of about $54,000. Consequently, this prevented the widespread investor losses and forced selling that characterized earlier periods of capitulation.
21Shares attributed this resilience partly to growing institutional ownership via spot Bitcoin ETFs. These investors have introduced more stable capital flows, reducing some of the extreme volatility from past cycles.
However, the traditional four-year post-halving pattern has evolved rather than disappeared. The report argues institutional participation changed the cycle’s character but did not eliminate its broader rhythm of expansion and contraction.
Looking ahead, the firm’s base-case scenario calls for a recovery toward $100,000 by year-end instead of an immediate new high. Meanwhile, continued growth in wallet adoption suggests underlying demand remains healthy despite recent price weakness.
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