- The United States announced a ceasefire with Iran yesterday, but prediction markets show skepticism about its durability.
- Polymarket odds for a continuous 14-day pause in U.S. airstrikes dropped 10% to around 53%.
- President Trump warned military action could resume if diplomacy fails, while Iran denied direct negotiations are taking place.
The United States formally announced a ceasefire with Iran yesterday, yet traders on prediction markets are betting the peace will be short-lived. A Polymarket contract requiring a continuous 14-day period without a U.S. airstrike or missile strike directly hitting Iranian territory slumped from over 60% to roughly 53% today, according to data from the platform.
The U.S. and Iran had held fire for a third day by Monday after 13 consecutive nights of U.S. strikes. However, President Donald Trump told Axios he was ready to return to “very strong military action” if talks fail. Iran, meanwhile, denied that direct negotiations were taking place, saying mediators were carrying messages.
Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, separately tracks whether the next formal senior-level round of U.S.-Iran peace talks begins by July 31. Most money is betting such conversations will be delayed until next month, according to Myriad data.
We’ve seen this movie before. An April ceasefire sent Bitcoin and oil markets sharply higher, but analysts called it “fragile breathing room.” Days later, prediction markets still doubted that Strait of Hormuz shipping would normalize because ships were still turning back. The July 31 Polymarket contract can remain open into mid-August because the required 14-day no-strike period only needs to begin by July 31.
✅ Follow BITNEWSBOT on Telegram, Facebook, LinkedIn, X.com, and Google News for instant updates.
