- SpaceX’s weight in the QQQ is set to rise independent of stock price movements due to a near-tripling of its public float from lockup expirations.
- Two critical dates are Aug. 4 for SpaceX earnings and Aug. 6 for a lockup expiration freeing nearly 1 billion pre-IPO shares.
- Analysts from Morningstar and Morgan Stanley offer opposing outlooks on the supply shock and the company’s fundamental positioning.
SpaceX’s weighting in the Invesco QQQ Trust is poised to increase even if its stock price remains flat, as a massive wave of post-IPO lockup expirations is set to nearly triple the company’s public float. That potential boost hinges on two critical dates: SpaceX earnings on Aug. 4 and a lockup expiration just two days later that frees close to 1 billion pre-IPO shares.
A thin float explains the current gap between SpaceX’s full valuation and its QQQ weight. Renaissance Capital strategist Matthew Kennedy noted SpaceX floated only about 5% of its shares at the IPO, versus roughly 20% for a typical offering. As of July 22, the QQQ Trust held 39.7 million SpaceX shares worth $4.57 billion, a 0.98% portfolio weight.
Morningstar analyst Zachary Evens stated the lockup expiration offers “an opportunity for SpaceX to claim a greater share of cap-weighted index funds” without a rally. However, supply could outrun demand from index funds, as pre-IPO investors gain the right to sell nearly 1 billion shares on Aug. 6.
Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens warned that “most of the available shares will come to market” rather than being held. If the float triples as expected, the float-adjusted market cap behind this boost could reach roughly $675 billion.
Wall Street is split heading into SpaceX earnings, which are due Aug. 4 with analysts expecting revenue near $6.9 billion. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an “Overweight” rating, arguing the company is “uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI”.
SPCX shares closed at $115.07 on Thursday, down 2.68% on the day, and have fallen 26% over the past month. Whichever way the numbers land on Aug. 4, analysts expect the QQQ boost to move forward on its own timeline, separate from the actual share price.
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