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SEC Delays Novel Prediction Market ETFs

SEC delays prediction market ETFs for public review, following crypto ETF precedent.

  • The SEC is delaying the launch of novel ETFs, including prediction market funds, to seek public feedback on their implications.
  • ETF applications from Bitwise, Roundhill, and GraniteShares propose tracking election results and other events, mimicking crypto’s path to ETFs.
  • The decision comes as prediction markets face legal challenges, but the SEC has shown more openness to innovation recently.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has paused the approval process for a new wave of innovative ETFs, including funds that would allow investors to bet on event outcomes, in order to consider the implications of these novel products. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said in a statement that these products raise novel questions and instructed staff to seek public feedback. Consequently, applications from firms like Bitwise, Roundhill Investments, and GraniteShares for prediction market ETFs are now under review.

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Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the regulator is “clearly wrestling” with how to handle this new asset class, similar to its approach before approving spot crypto ETFs earlier this year. However, prediction markets have become one of crypto’s hottest use cases, now consistently recording more than $15 billion in monthly trading volume. Meanwhile, Atkins noted that ETFs have been a “major driver” of innovation, with ETF assets tripling since 2019.

The SEC’s decision also coincides with ongoing court challenges facing prediction market platforms like Kalshi. Nonetheless, the regulator has shown more flexibility in approving innovative products recently, particularly after introducing a new generic listing standard. Additionally, the SEC is reportedly considering an “innovation exemption” that would allow tokenized stock trading, putting versions of major company stocks on crypto rails.

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