- Several data providers have been double counting Polymarket trading volumes by misinterpreting smart contract events.
- The issue arises from counting two “OrderFilled” events per trade—one for the maker and one for the taker—leading to volume figures twice the actual amount.
- Data services such as DefiLlama, Allium, and Blockworks were identified as using this flawed counting method but are working to correct it.
- Polymarket states its own website does not double count volume, instead showing only notional taker volume similar to competitor Kalshi.
- This data discrepancy is unrelated to any wash trading activity and stems from a misunderstanding of how Polymarket’s smart contract emits events.
A new report from Paradigm, an investor in Kalshi, revealed that several key data providers were miscounting trading volume on prediction market Polymarket. The error emerged because these providers counted two “OrderFilled” events per trade rather than just one, effectively doubling Polymarket’s reported volume numbers.
Paradigm’s research partner, Storm Slivkoff, explained that a trade on Polymarket creates two “OrderFilled” events: one for the maker (the party creating the order) and one for the taker (the party accepting the order). Many data sources incorrectly counted both events as separate trades, inflating the volume data. The report identified data providers including DefiLlama, Allium, and Blockworks as adopting this method, though they reportedly are now working to fix their calculations.
According to Polymarket, this problem does not affect the volume figures shown on its own website. A user affiliated with the platform, “primo_data,” clarified via Twitter that Polymarket’s site shows “notional taker volume,” using the same approach as Kalshi. This means only the taker’s side of a trade is counted, avoiding double counting. Other dashboards displaying both Polymarket and Kalshi data reportedly follow this convention.
The report emphasizes that the volume double counting is not related to potential wash trading—where the same trader repeatedly trades with themselves to inflate volume—but solely due to misunderstanding the smart contract’s event emissions. Prediction markets have gained importance following regulatory shifts that allow binary options markets, with figures like Donald Trump Jr. advising and investing in both Polymarket and Kalshi.
For detailed information, Paradigm’s original analysis can be found in their report.
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