- Bitcoin‘s rebound from the $71,400 cost basis of its three-to-six-month holders puts the $78,200 level back in focus.
- Historical data shows breaking above this cohort’s cost basis has led to average gains of 21.9% after 90 days and 36.6% after 180 days.
- However, the recovery is occurring within a bear flag pattern, and a breakdown could open the door to a decline toward the $50,000–$60,000 range.
Bitcoin rebounded roughly 2.5% over the weekend, reaching $74,000 on Sunday as it bounced from a critical on-chain support zone defended by its medium-term holders. The recovery began near $72,500, close to the realized price of BTC held for three to six months, a cohort analyst Marcus Corvinus described as Bitcoin’s strongest near-term support.
Consequently, bulls are now eyeing a move to $78,200, which aligns with the realized price of this same cohort. A sustained move above this cost basis could put Bitcoin on track for a significant push higher, based on historical precedent.
Data from Glassnode shows that after similar breakouts, BTC has averaged a 21.9% gain after 90 days and a 36.6% gain after 180 days. From the current level near $74,000, that implies potential upside targets of roughly $90,200 in three months and $101,100 in six months.
Meanwhile, the signal has been more reliable over longer time frames, with positive returns occurring in 79.2% of cases after six months. However, Bitcoin’s rebound is also occurring near the lower boundary of a bear flag pattern, keeping the technical outlook cautious.
A rebound from this area could push BTC toward the flag’s upper boundary near $90,000. Conversely, a daily close below the lower trend line would risk confirming a breakdown, opening the door to a deeper decline.
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