- Barclays analyst Tom O’Malley’s “napkin math” projects NVIDIA could generate $237 billion in hyperscaler revenue in 2026, exceeding the firm’s current $206 billion estimate.
- In an upside scenario, Nvidia’s hyperscaler revenue could reach $246 billion in 2026 and $417 billion in 2027.
- Nvidia’s share of IT capital spending among the top five cloud providers is projected to hit 44% by 2027, with SpaceX excluded from that share calculation, potentially implying even larger revenue.
Barclays analyst Tom O’Malley used “napkin math” from a chart Nvidia shared to estimate that the chipmaker could generate $237 billion in hyperscaler revenue in 2026, above Barclays’ current $206 billion estimate. The calculation, detailed in a note to investors cited by TheFly, is based on Nvidia’s share of IT capital spending among the five largest cloud service providers.
Consequently, O’Malley projects Nvidia’s hyperscaler revenue could reach $401 billion in 2027, compared with Barclays’ existing estimate of $370 billion. In an upside scenario, the firm sees revenue hitting $246 billion in 2026 and $417 billion in 2027.
The chart Nvidia presented shows its share of IT capex at the top five cloud providers reaching 44% in 2027. However, Nvidia’s reported hyperscaler revenue also includes SpaceX, which is excluded from that 44% share calculation, meaning the implied revenue opportunity could be even larger.
Meanwhile, NVDA stock edged 0.6% higher in morning trade on Thursday, with retail sentiment on Stocktwits trending neutral over the past day. Barclays maintains an “Overweight” rating on Nvidia with a $275 price target, according to reports.
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