- JP Morgan reaffirmed its Gold price target of $6,300 per ounce for year-end 2026 and raised its short-term forecast to $4,500.
- Central bank gold buying, U.S. Treasury divestment, and a shift away from dollar reserves are driving the upward revision.
- Analyst consensus aligns with these bullish targets, with forecasts from Wells Fargo, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Société Générale ranging from $6,000 to $6,300.
- Gold portfolio allocation is expected to rise from 2.8% of total investor AUM toward 4–5% over the coming years.
On February 25, JP Morgan reaffirmed its gold price target of $6,300 per ounce for year-end 2026, while simultaneously raising its short-term forecast by 15% to $4,500. Central bank buying, U.S. Treasury divestment announcements, and a shift in reserve preferences away from the dollar all informed this decision. Consequently, spot gold has already climbed around 20% in 2026, following a 64% surge through 2025.
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, stated “While this rally in gold has not, and will not, be linear, we believe the trends driving this rebasing higher in gold prices are not exhausted.” Meanwhile, the bank projects JPMorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices”>central bank gold buying will total around 755 tonnes this year. Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, confirmed this view, saying “We believe central bank demand will remain elevated next year and have been encouraged by strong buying in the third quarter of 2025, even with much higher gold prices.”
Gold portfolio allocation across ETFs, physical holdings, and futures sat at around 2.8% of total investor AUM as of late 2025. However, JP Morgan sees that climbing toward 4–5% over the coming years, driven by substantial ETF inflows and bar and coin demand. Consequently, the broader analyst consensus aligns with JP Morgan‘s bullish outlook. Wells Fargo, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Société Générale have published forecasts ranging from $6,000 to $6,300 for year-end 2026.
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