- Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) has banned his entire congressional staff from trading on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
- A bipartisan bill, the PREDICT Act, has been introduced to extend similar restrictions to senior government officials.
- Prediction market analyst Dustin Gouker expects many other congressional offices will follow Moulton’s lead.
- The crackdown follows scrutiny over suspiciously profitable bets on geopolitical events, raising insider trading concerns.
Massachusetts Democrat Seth Moulton has instituted a sweeping office-wide ban, effective immediately, prohibiting all congressional staff from trading on prediction market platforms. The policy targets political, legislative, and geopolitical bets, which Moulton called “a playground for corrupt insiders” in an official statement. This move arrives as lawmakers intensify scrutiny of potential insider trading within these markets.
Consequently, bipartisan lawmakers simultaneously introduced legislation expanding these prohibitions. Reps. Adrian Smith (R-NE) and Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) unveiled the PREDICT Act, according to their press release. The bill would bar senior officials from betting on government actions, with violators facing financial penalties.
Analyst Dustin Gouker told Decrypt that many other congressional offices will likely adopt similar restrictions. He acknowledged reaching perfection is impossible, but better rules can make insider trading more difficult. Polymarket and Kalshi have reportedly strengthened their own anti-insider trading measures in response to the political pressure.
This legislative push follows several controversial market events. These include profitable wagers on a Venezuelan leader’s capture and U.S. military strikes, fueling concerns. Meanwhile, other bills like the BETS OFF Act also seek to ban markets tied to terrorism or war.
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