- By 2032, up to 42% of Bitcoin’s supply could be classified as illiquid, according to Fidelity.
- Public companies currently hold over 969,000 Bitcoin, or about 4.6% of the total supply.
- Illiquidity may decrease available Bitcoin on the open market, potentially impacting price.
- Recent sell-offs by large holders have totaled $12.7 billion, coinciding with a 2% Bitcoin Price drop.
Fidelity reports that by the second quarter of 2032, 42% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, or about 8.3 million BTC, could become illiquid. The firm’s assessment is based on ongoing accumulation trends among large holders and publicly traded companies.
In its recently published report, Fidelity identifies two main groups whose Bitcoin holdings are largely unavailable for sale: long-term holders who have not moved their Bitcoin in at least seven years, and publicly traded firms each owning 1,000 or more Bitcoin. The firm estimates these groups could control over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025, representing more than 28% of the total 21 million Bitcoin supply.
Fidelity notes that long-term holders have not reduced their Bitcoin holdings since 2016. Publicly traded companies have generally retained their Bitcoin as well, with only one decrease in their combined holdings occurring in the second quarter of 2022. Currently, 105 public companies collectively hold over 969,000 BTC, accounting for about 4.6% of all Bitcoin in circulation, as tracked by Bitbo.
According to Fidelity, a continuing trend of supply accumulation among these two cohorts could mean increased scarcity for Bitcoin on the open market. This could affect Bitcoin’s price by limiting the amount available for trading.
The report also highlights recent market activity, noting that large holders, often referred to as “whales,” have sold about $12.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in the last 30 days. This marks the biggest sell-off since mid-2022 and has coincided with a 2% decrease in Bitcoin’s price, according to data from CoinGecko.
Fidelity did not include the potential impact of new entrants among public companies or further supply constraints in its forecast. For more details, the full report is available via Fidelity Digital Assets.
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