Fed Holds Rates; September Hike Unlikely – Goldman

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered above $63,000 on Monday as traders shifted focus to the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, with Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius calling a rate hike “very unlikely.” According to a Bloomberg report, Hatzius cited underwhelming employment figures, cooling inflation, and weaker retail sales as reasons for the dovish shift.

The July Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year over year, while core CPI came in at 2.5%, giving policymakers additional cover to hold rates steady on Sept. 16. The FOMC has held rates at the same level since the December rate cut.

CME FedWatch data showed a 69.4% probability of rates holding at 3.50%-3.75%, with hike odds falling to 30.6% from 52.2% a week earlier. Goldman Sachs expects a rate cut in December 2026.

A February 2023 New York Fed study found Bitcoin was “orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news,” with no statistically significant reaction to Fed policy surprises. The only release with a meaningful influence was the consumer price index.

During the 2019 rate hold, Bitcoin returned roughly 170% from its cycle low, according to macro research analyst Markus Thielen. However, he warned that “if growth concerns drive the cut, either in September or later, Bitcoin might face significant selling pressure.”

BTC climbed 19% following the July 2019 rate cut but lost a third of its value in the second half of that year. Every rate hold in 2026 has been met with further price decline, leaving the asset near $63,000, almost half of its October 2025 peak.

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