- Bitmex founder Arthur Hayes suggests Chinese capital may flow to Bitcoin in response to US trade tariffs.
- Historical patterns show Bitcoin Price increases during yuan devaluation events in 2013, 2015, and 2019.
- Chinese investors may use cryptocurrencies to preserve wealth and circumvent capital controls during currency devaluation.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has suggested that China‘s response to new American trade tariffs could trigger capital movement into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In an April 8 post on X, Hayes indicated that actions from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) might provide the necessary catalyst to reignite the crypto market bull run, particularly if China devalues its currency in response to US trade measures.
“If not the Fed [Federal Reserve], then the PBOC [People’s Bank of China] will give us the Yahtzee ingredients,” Hayes stated, adding that “Chinese capital flight will flow into Bitcoin” if the yuan is devalued. Ben Zhou, CEO and co-founder of Bybit, echoed this sentiment, noting that historically, Bitcoin prices have risen when Chinese investors move capital into the cryptocurrency during yuan devaluation periods.
Historical Precedents of Yuan Devaluation and Bitcoin Response
This pattern has occurred multiple times in recent years. In August 2015, China devalued the yuan by nearly 2% against the US dollar—the largest single-day drop in decades—coinciding with increased Bitcoin interest. Similarly, when the yuan fell below the symbolic 7:1 ratio against the USD in August 2019, Bitcoin saw a price jump of approximately 20% in the first week of that month.
Crypto asset manager Grayscale previously noted this relationship, identifying yuan depreciation as a factor that contributed to Bitcoin market growth in 2019. While direct causation remains debated among analysts, the timing correlation has been observed across multiple devaluation events.
Wealth Preservation and Capital Control Avoidance
Analysts suggest that wealthy Chinese citizens have historically turned to cryptocurrencies to preserve wealth during periods of currency instability. These digital assets provide a vehicle to move capital beyond government reach and circumvent the country’s strict capital controls and financial restrictions.
Currency devaluations can also erode trust in central banks and government financial management, potentially driving people toward decentralized alternatives like Bitcoin as a hedge against instability.
The latest tensions escalated on April 7, when the US president announced plans to increase tariffs against China. The Chinese Commerce Ministry responded firmly, stating: “If the US implements escalated tariff measures, China will resolutely take countermeasures to defend its own interests,” signaling a potential trade conflict that could impact global markets and possibly drive further interest in cryptocurrencies.
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