- Bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, a signal that a new bear market may be beginning.
- CryptoQuant reports BTC rose 21% since Nov. 21 and rallied 19% from $80,500 to about $97,900.
- The 365-day moving average sits near $101,000, making that level a key resistance zone.
- Exchange inflows rose to a 7-day average of 39,000 BTC, roughly $3.8 billion using the reported $97,900 price, the largest since Nov. 25, 2025.
- Price action and indicators echo 2022 patterns, and analysts have flagged potential retreats toward $65,000 during 2026.
According to CryptoQuant in its Weekly Report issued Friday, Bitcoin looks to be at the start of another bear market because price remains below its 365-day moving average at $101,000. The platform notes BTC has risen 21% since November 21 and rallied 19% from a $80,500 low to about $97,900, but that rebound has not cleared the yearly trendline.
“Bitcoin has risen 21% since November 21 in what appears to be a ‘bear market rally,’” the report states. “The price of Bitcoin fell by 19% as it confirmed the start of a bear market after crossing below its 365-day moving average (MA). Since then, it has rallied by 19% to as high as $97.9K, approaching its 365-day MA that sits at $101K,” the research adds.
The 365-day MA around $101,000 now represents multiple resistance hurdles, making the current rebound’s ability to clear that level especially important. The report compares the current trajectory to 2022, noting a similar pattern of declines below the yearly MA followed by rallies that were later rejected.
CryptoQuant also highlighted rising exchange inflows as a bearish signal. Total Bitcoin flowing into exchanges picked up to a 7-day average of 39,000 BTC — about $3.8 billion using the reported $97,900 price — the largest inflow volume since November 25, 2025. “Higher inflows to exchanges can indicate escalating selling pressure ahead,” the report concludes.
The research notes that some recent forecasts include the possibility of a retreat toward $65,000 during 2026, and it cautions that technical and fundamental indicators still point to a bear market.
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