- Bitcoin has failed to break above its critical 200-day moving average around $82,430, according to data from CryptoQuant.
- The rejection mirrors a pattern seen in March 2022, which preceded a prolonged and severe price downturn.
- Current unrealized profit margins of 17.7% are at a high level, signaling elevated risk of selling pressure from holders.
- Despite the correction, Bitcoin remains well above a key support level around $70,000.
Bitcoin’s recent bear market rally has stalled this week after the cryptocurrency failed to surpass its crucial 200-day moving average price of approximately $82,430, a pivotal moment reported by analytics firm CryptoQuant. Consequently, this rejection marks a critical juncture for BTC’s price trajectory, echoing its behavior during March 2022.
That previous relief rally was followed by a significant downturn, which saw Bitcoin fall from nearly $47,000 to below $16,000 later that same year. Meanwhile, unrealized profit levels are also currently high, potentially adding to sell pressure.
“Traders’ unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest reading since June 2025, signaling elevated selling pressure risk,” the CryptoQuant report reads. Furthermore, traders last week locked in the largest profit-taking day since December 2025, moving 14.6K Bitcoin worth over $1.16 billion.
Historically, such aggressive profit-taking anticipates lower prices as traders start to sell. Additionally, the Coinbase Premium indicator has flipped negative since late April, showcasing declining demand for spot BTC buyers in the United States.
Bitcoin has fallen around 1.6% in the last 24 hours, trading near $79,379—roughly 3.5% below the highlighted 200-day moving average. However, CryptoQuant indicates Bitcoin may find support around $70,000, the traders’ on-chain realized price.
“This level has historically acted as a key resistance-turned-support band during bear markets,” the firm added. It represents the average cost basis of short-term traders and a level where unrealized profit margins compress back toward zero.
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