Bitcoin HODLers Hold Strong as 15 Million Coins Remain Idle for Over Six Months, Signaling Possible Supply Shock Ahead

Glassnode's Week Onchain report reveals long-term bitcoin savers are reluctant to sell, with nearly 15 million BTC sitting idle for over six months. With only 23% of the supply available to meet demand, a supply shock could take shape, potentially driving the price of BTC upward.

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Nearly 15 million bitcoins have been sitting idle for more than six months, according to Glassnode’s latest Week Onchain report.

The firm notes that, despite regulatory pressure and a 50% bitcoin rally so far this year, long-term savers show little willingness to sell.

Glassnode noted that BTC that have not changed hands for six months or more reached 14.993 billion, a figure very close to last December’s all-time high of 15.029 billion.

The figure of BTC not moved for more than six months thus reaches 77% of the circulating currency.

Shortly after reaching USD 64,000, in April 2021, these bitcoins with more than six months of acquired had registered a low.

However, as a result of sustained accumulation by long-term savers, these held/molded BTC resumed an upward trend.

Bitcoins with more than a year without changing hands have also grown, to reach an all-time high of 12,913 million, or 67% of the supply. The evolution of these is indicated by the blue line on the graph.

Analyzing bitcoin investor behavior

The pace of spending of these BTCs slows as the length of time they are held by savers increases. Currently, about 4,776 BTC over six months are spent each day, according to Glassnode.

Of the total BTC spent, however, only 4,123% are “older” than six months, meaning that most of the BTC spent are young coins.

These low levels of bitcoin sales have in the past corresponded to bearish seasons, when lows in BTC traded coincide with a correction, the study argues.

“This provides an indicator of periods when older hands are unlikely to spend their BTC, which could indicate a perception that the market is oversold, at least in the short term,” Glassnode notes.

With fewer BTC available for sale, what is called a supply shock could take shape. This scenario, is characterized by a growth in BTC held by savers with little willingness to sell.

With 77% of the supply in the hands of long-term savers, only 23% of it remains available to meet demand, a situation that would be favorable for further upward momentum in the price of BTC.

At the time of writing, the price of bitcoin is USD 24,413, down 1.75% in the last 24 hours. In the month of February, bitcoin has progressed by 6.2%, while reaching a year-to-date rally of 49%.

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