- Bitcoin may continue to new all-time highs if it successfully breaks through its 20-month moving average at $87,165
- The market cycle signals metric shows BTC/USD poised to reclaim the “inflection frontier” lost in December 2025
- CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator continues to show Bitcoin in a bull market
- Bitcoin’s “reset” is complete, with the next rally potentially extending beyond the $126,200 all-time high
Bitcoin is attempting to break through its 20-month moving average at $87,165, a key “inflection frontier” that has historically triggered runs to new macro highs, according to data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
The 20-month simple moving average (SMA) forms the basis for CryptoQuant’s market cycle signals tool, which uses Bollinger Bands to map Bitcoin’s market cycles. The upper and lower bands currently sit at $121,640 and $52,694, respectively.
However, the SMA itself represents the “inflection frontier” — a previous point of investor capitulation when price broke below it in December 2025. Historical data shows successful breakouts from below this level have led to new cycle highs.
“Just over a year after the all-time high of $124,709 on October 6, 2025, the market has concluded its ‘reset,'” CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain summarized in a blog post.
Meanwhile, retail investors fear the current price of $82,442, though the onchain indicator suggests the rally is only beginning. “While retail fears the current $82,442, thinking it’s the ‘top,’ the on-chain indicator BTC: Market Cycle Signals reveals that we are just warming up,” GugaOnChain added.
The 20-month SMA also has confluence with Bitcoin’s 2026 opening level at $87,490, strengthening its role as resistance. Large walls of ask liquidity remain in the vicinity across exchange order books.
Consequently, CryptoQuant maintains a broadly optimistic stance on Bitcoin’s emerging bull market despite macroeconomic headwinds. Contributor XWIN Research Japan flagged three onchain metrics that give reason for “cautious optimism” for bullish momentum to return through the end of October.
In late August, CEO Ki Young Ju officially stated that the bear market was “over” based on the bull-bear market cycle indicator. The composite metric shows bullish momentum accelerating, with a reading of 0.186 versus 0.042 in August.
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