- Arthur Hayes has missed on 16 of his last 20 major crypto predictions, according to a review by Protos.
- Recent forecasts from Hayes, including short-term Bitcoin Price moves and altcoin picks, have mostly failed to materialize.
- Two of Hayes’ predictions, including Bitcoin reaching $1 million, remain unresolved as their target dates are in the future.
Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes has seen the majority of his recent market predictions fall short, based on an analysis by Protos of his 20 latest forecasts. Hayes, now chief investment officer at Maelstrom, regularly shares his market outlook with the crypto trading community.
Protos highlighted that on September 6, 2024, Hayes predicted Bitcoin would fall below $50,000 and announced a short position. However, Bitcoin only reached $52,546 that day and never went lower, marking the call as unsuccessful. Hayes also forecasted that crypto markets would peak in mid-March 2025, but market data showed the highest capitalization occurred on January 20, 2025, the day of the U.S. presidential inauguration, with a significant decline following in March.
Other notable misses include his call on March 23 that Bitcoin would reach $110,000 before retesting $76,500. Contrary to this, Bitcoin dropped back to $76,500 on April 7 without breaching the higher target. Hayes’ seven recommended altcoins—BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO, and NEURON—each suffered heavy losses, with year-to-date declines ranging from -28% to -89% as tracked by Protos.
Some predictions are still pending, including Hayes’ claim that Bitcoin could rally to $1 million by 2028. As of now, Bitcoin is more than 89% below that price. Similarly, Hayes’ recent advice to “buy everything” across global markets has yet to produce a clear outcome, as shown by consistent prices in the Vanguard Total World Index.
Protos also referenced Hayes’ own admissions regarding his forecasting track record. In an analysis posted on September 25, 2023, Hayes stated that only six out of his last eight predictions from 2023 to autumn 2024 were correct. According to Protos’ tally, Hayes recorded 16 failed forecasts, succeeded with two, and left two predictions undetermined based on current market data.
Additional information, such as Hayes’ post-indictment activities and the projects he has promoted, is available in the full report by Protos.
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