- Analyst Nic Puckrin estimates a 40% chance of U.S. recession in 2025, citing trade war concerns and economic uncertainty.
- Bitcoin’s price has corrected 24% from January highs amid market fears over Trump’s trade tariffs.
- Experts suggest crypto markets may recover if trade tensions ease by April 2025.
U.S. recession risks have climbed to 40% for 2025 according to Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin, who warns that ongoing trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty could create a challenging environment for cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin has already experienced a significant correction as investors react to escalating tariff concerns.
In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, Puckrin clarified that while a recession isn’t the most likely outcome, the probability has increased substantially. “Trump and his advisors have said they have not completely dismissed the recession, which means it is definitely possible, but right now, I would not say it is probable, but the odds have climbed a lot,” the analyst stated.
Puckrin noted that the Trump administration isn’t deliberately trying to trigger an economic downturn. However, their fiscal policies—including federal job cuts and budget-balancing measures—could inadvertently produce recessionary conditions as a side effect.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a significant decline in March 2025, which Puckrin attributes primarily to macroeconomic uncertainty. Investors are reportedly reallocating capital to European markets in search of stability and better growth opportunities away from uncertain U.S. economic conditions.
## Trade War Impact on Cryptocurrency Markets
President Trump’s implementation of tariffs on trading partners has severely impacted cryptocurrency valuations. Bitcoin (BTC) has corrected 24% from its January 20 peak of $109,000, while altcoins have seen even steeper declines.
Market sentiment has shifted dramatically from the optimism that followed Trump’s November 2025 re-election and January inauguration to what analysts now characterize as “extreme fear” amid trade war concerns.
According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, cryptocurrency markets will likely remain under pressure from tariff impacts until April 2025. A potential recovery depends on successful trade negotiations or a softening of the administration’s stance on tariffs.
Adding to this perspective, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen recently said that Bitcoin may have already formed a price bottom in March 2025, citing signs that President Trump has begun moderating his rhetoric on trade tariffs—potentially signaling a price reversal in the coming weeks.
Technical analysis indicates Bitcoin is currently trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key technical indicator that many traders watch for determining long-term market trends.
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