- The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority is reportedly weighing whether to lift its 2019 ban on prediction markets for retail investors.
- Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi could see legal UK access, though many users already bypass restrictions using VPNs.
- Bernstein Research projects the prediction market industry could reach $240 billion in trading volume by 2026 and $1 trillion by 2030.
- Overturning the ban could expose prediction platforms to regulatory challenges similar to those in the US, where state authorities are pursuing legal action.
The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has reportedly reached out to prediction market companies to discuss whether it would loosen a retail investor ban in place since 2019. According to a Friday report from The Times, the FCA is weighing lifting the ban on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi for UK-based retail investors.
Prediction markets offer binary options on event contracts, including sports, politics and weather, placing them under the FCA’s April 2019 ban. Companies were “prohibited from selling, marketing or distributing binary options to retail consumers” under the rules.
“Binary options are gambling products dressed up as financial instruments,” said the FCA’s executive director of strategy and competition, Christopher Woolard, at the time of the ban.
Consequently, many UK retail investors have been using virtual private networks (VPNs) to bypass the country’s restrictions and execute trades on Kalshi and Polymarket, both with US operations. Bernstein Research speculated in April that the total prediction market industry could rise to about $240 billion in trading volume in 2026 and $1 trillion in 2030.
Meanwhile, should the FCA overturn the 2019 ban, prediction platforms could face similar challenges as they are dealing with in the US, where state gaming authorities are filing lawsuits over sporting event contracts. Last week, New Jersey officials petitioned the Supreme Court to hear their case against Kalshi, potentially leading to clarification between state and federal authorities over prediction markets.
✅ Follow BITNEWSBOT on Telegram, Facebook, LinkedIn, X.com, and Google News for instant updates.
