- Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 before eventually rallying to $100,000 and $4,000 by end-2026.
- The assets under management for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have plunged 41% and 43% from their respective 2025 peaks, according to CoinGlass data.
- Despite the lowered near-term targets, the bank maintains a bullish long-term outlook, predicting Bitcoin at $500,000, Ethereum at $40,000, and Solana at $2,000 by 2030.
- Institutional involvement through ETFs is expected to cushion market declines, making this cycle less extreme than previous ones.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, issued a bearish near-term forecast, predicting Bitcoin will sink to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400. However, the bank maintains these assets will reclaim $100,000 and $4,000 by the end of 2026.
Consequently, the report directly links this interim drop to significant ETF outflows. Total assets under management in Bitcoin ETFs have fallen 41% from an October peak above $165 billion to $96 billion, data shows.
Similarly, Ethereum ETF holdings peaked at $23 billion in August 2025 before dropping 43%. “Near-term, we see potential for further price downside in the coming months,” Kendrick wrote.
Meanwhile, market sentiment on the prediction market platform Myriad aligns with this cautious outlook. Users there see a 58% chance Bitcoin drops to $55,000 before it can rise to $84,000.
Despite these adjustments, Standard Chartered’s long-term thesis remains firmly intact. The bank continues to project Bitcoin reaching $500,000, with Ethereum at $40,000 and Solana at $2,000, by 2030.
Kendrick argues current drawdown metrics are not as severe as in past cycles. He believes institutional ETF involvement will provide a crucial buffer against extreme declines this time.
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