- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted three consecutive days of outflows totaling about $934.8 million.
- Daily ETF outflows hit roughly $205.5 million on Thursday, though the seven-day net flow remains positive at $240.7 million.
- Bitcoin faces heavy overhead supply where recent buyers hold cost bases between $92,100 and $117,400.
- Options data shows short-dated call skew turned negative, signaling the end of the early-January upside chase and a move toward consolidation.
- Key short-term resistance to watch is the short-term holder cost basis near $98,900; current price sits around $91,100.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded three straight days of net outflows through Thursday, as investors trimmed positions amid fading new-year optimism and higher perceived risk. According to Farside data, ETFs saw about $205.5 million leave on Thursday, taking the three-day total to roughly $934.8 million, while the seven-day net flow stayed positive at $240.7 million. Bitcoin traded near $91,100 after dipping below $90,000 earlier in the week.
Market participants tied the ETF withdrawals to tactical repositioning rather than a collapse in demand. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, said “It’s not surprising to see ETF investors doing a bit of de-risking.” He pointed to year-end capital moves, failure to clear resistance near $92,000, and broader macro uncertainty as drivers of outflows.
On-chain metrics show a clustered cost basis for recent large buyers that could act as a supply wall. A Glassnode’s report found that top buyers hold positions concentrated between $92,100 and $117,400, creating rising breakeven sell-side pressure. Glassnode analysts noted, “The market now faces rising breakeven sell-side pressure, as these investors regain the opportunity to exit positions without realizing losses.”
Options-market signals also shifted as momentum faded. Dawson highlighted that short-dated call skew flipped negative, marking an end to the early-January upside chase. He added, “Overall, upside looks capped, and the market expects consolidation over the next few weeks.”
If Bitcoin stabilizes and attempts another rally, observers flagged the short-term holder cost basis near $98,900 as the next notable level to watch. Market indicators suggest any sustained ascent will need time to absorb the overhead supply from recent buyers.
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