- SkyBridge‘s Anthony Scaramucci attributes the current Bitcoin bear market to the four-year cycle and long-term holders selling at the $100,000 psychological level.
- The four-year cycle has been muted by institutional investors and ETF inflows but remains a self-fulfilling prophecy influencing price action.
- Bitcoin fell below $69,000 amid geopolitical turmoil, with some analysts warning of a potential 50% drop in 2026 if its correlation with the S&P 500 holds.
Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of the investment firm SkyBridge, explained the current Bitcoin bear market in a recent podcast appearance, linking it to the cryptocurrency’s historical four-year cycle. He stated that traditional whales sold at the $100,000 level, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Consequently, he forecasts choppy price action will persist until the fourth quarter of 2026.
Markets, however, often move against prevailing sentiment, as seen after the November 2022 collapse of the FTX exchange. Scaramucci noted that the bull market started again “at a period of great disinterest and great apathy.” To be sure, industry participants continue to debate whether this cycle theory is still valid after Bitcoin ended 2025 in the red.
Meanwhile, broader risk assets are under pressure as the war in Iran enters its third week. Bitcoin’s price fell below $69,000 over the weekend, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The S&P 500 index also extended its decline, dropping about 1.3% and closing below its key 200-day moving average for the first time in ten months as reports show.
Some analysts now forecast a potential 50% drop in Bitcoin’s price for 2026 if its positive correlation with the S&P 500 continues. This geopolitical turmoil adds a new layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market landscape.
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