- Roundhill Investments has filed to launch six ETFs tied to the 2028 U.S. election outcome.
- Each ETF would allow investment in “event contracts” on which party wins the presidency, Senate, or House.
- The move is seen as groundbreaking, but the filing warns of extreme risk and regulatory uncertainty.
Roundhill Investments filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday to launch a potentially groundbreaking set of ETFs tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election. The six proposed funds would allow investors to speculate on election outcomes using unique derivative instruments known as event contracts.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the products could open a huge door to new investment types. He noted that while prediction markets are accessible, ETFs are “just that much easier” for investors to use.
The suite of filings includes the Roundhill Democratic President ETF and the Roundhill Republican President ETF. It also contains similar products tied to which party controls the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Roundhill Investments warns that the objective is capital appreciation for a winning outcome. However, the five other ETFs could lose almost all their value as votes are tallied.
The filing states this value convergence creates a unique and sudden NAV shift. It further cautions that evolving U.S. regulations on event contracts could limit or prohibit such investments entirely.
This regulatory landscape may be shifting favorably, however. On Feb. 5, Cointelegraph reported the CFTC withdrew a proposal to ban political prediction markets.
Meanwhile, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin expressed concern about prediction markets’ direction in an X post. He suggested they are over-converging to unhealthy short-term betting products instead of enabling long-term building.
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