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Roscongress Predicts Market Shifts in 2025: S&P 500, Bitcoin, and Trade Wars

U.S. Trade Policies Under Trump Could Reshape Global Economy

  • Roscongress foresees a large-scale U.S. trade war in 2025 under Donald Trump’s presidency.
  • The S&P 500 may rise to 6,200-6,300 points before falling to 5,600 by year-end.
  • Bitcoin could reach $150,000 amid increased liquidity in digital assets.
  • U.S. trade tariffs on partners like Canada, Mexico, and the EU may reshape global trade agreements.
  • Relaxed regulations could fuel growth in cryptocurrency markets.

According to a recent report by Russia’s Roscongress, the U.S. could initiate a major trade war in 2025 under Donald Trump’s leadership. Titled “Key Events 2025. Main Risks”, the report predicts sweeping changes in global trade policies, a turbulent stock market, and rising prominence for digital assets like Bitcoin.

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The report highlights that U.S. trade tariffs could target not only China but also key allies like Canada, Mexico, and the EU, potentially dismantling or reshaping agreements such as NAFTA.

Tariffs for European goods could be set at 10-15%, while Canada and Mexico might face 25-30%. Tariffs on goods linked to Chinese production could exceed 60%.

Stock Market and Bitcoin Projections

Roscongress forecasts significant volatility in the U.S. stock market.

The S&P 500 is expected to climb to 6,200-6,300 points—a 6% increase—before retreating to 5,600 by the end of 2025. This decline reflects anticipated pressure on multinational companies from trade restrictions and challenges refinancing pandemic-era debt at higher interest rates.

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Meanwhile, Bitcoin could see substantial gains, fueled by rising liquidity in the financial system. Predictions place Bitcoin’s price between $75,500 and $150,000 in 2025, albeit with considerable volatility.

Roscongress attributes this growth to increased investor interest in digital assets as regulatory frameworks under a Trump administration become more favorable.

Cryptocurrency Market Outlook

The report suggests that Trump’s return to the White House could signal a pro-crypto regulatory shift, bolstering investor optimism. Plans to create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve and appoint cryptocurrency advocates to key positions may further drive market growth.

As Roscongress notes, “With monetary easing, liquidity could flow into digital assets, spurring unprecedented market activity.” While these developments present opportunities, the report also cautions about the risks of high volatility and potential corrections.

For more insights from Roscongress, refer to their full report on projected economic and market dynamics in 2025.

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