- Bitcoin is projected to finish 2026 above $150,000 while losing overall market share.
- Developer work will favor neutral, composable infrastructure, with Ethereum and Solana seen as likely outperformers.
- Stablecoin supply and new payment rails should drive broader payments adoption, especially in emerging markets.
- DeFi market structure will consolidate around a few dominant venues for on-chain perpetual futures trading.
- U.S. lawmakers may pass a crypto market structure bill in 2026 amid increased political scrutiny of crypto-linked deals.
Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at crypto-focused venture firm Dragonfly, posted a wide-ranging outlook for 2026 on Dec. 29. He framed the view as a shift toward durability, distribution and real-world usage after several volatile cycles. The post covers markets, infrastructure, payments, DeFi, regulation, prediction markets, AI and security.
Qureshi expects bitcoin to end 2026 above $150,000 while taking a smaller share of total crypto activity. He suggested that growth elsewhere need not displace bitcoin’s role as the sector’s anchor asset. He expressed skepticism about newer fintech-branded blockchains sustaining high user engagement.
He said developer activity will concentrate on infrastructure that emphasizes neutrality and composability. That focus should favor networks such as Ethereum and Solana. He also highlighted Avalanche and several rollup frameworks as positioned to benefit from increased corporate blockchain deployments.
On payments, Qureshi predicts a sharp expansion in stablecoin supply, remaining predominantly dollar-denominated, and faster adoption driven by new distribution channels. Definition: A stablecoin is a digital token designed to maintain a stable value, often pegged to a fiat currency. Definition: A payment rail is the system or network that moves money between parties.
In decentralized finance, he expects consolidation: a small number of venues will capture most on-chain perpetual futures trading. Definition: A perpetual future is a derivative that lets traders take leveraged positions without an expiry date. He noted product changes that favor negotiated execution over traditional open order books and warned of potential insider trading controversies drawing mainstream scrutiny.
On policy, he foresaw U.S. lawmakers advancing a crypto market structure bill in 2026 after negotiations and warned of heightened congressional scrutiny of crypto ventures tied to U.S. politics. Qureshi disclosed that he invests in many assets mentioned in the post.
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