- New research from crypto market maker Keyrock identifies U.S. Treasury bill issuance, not central bank balance sheets, as the primary liquidity driver for Bitcoin’s price.
- The report finds an 80% correlation between T-bill issuance and BTC prices since 2021, with issuance leading price by about eight months.
- Global liquidity is at an inflection point, with a massive wave of U.S. debt requiring refinancing, projected to push T-bill issuance to $600-$800 billion annually through 2028.
A new report from crypto investment firm and market maker Keyrock has reshaped the debate on what drives Bitcoin‘s price, revealing that U.S. Treasury bill issuance is the primary liquidity metric, not Federal Reserve policy. This groundbreaking research identifies a precise financial mechanism through which newly created money enters risk assets like Bitcoin.
Consequently, every 1% change in global liquidity impacts Bitcoin’s price by 7.6% the following business quarter. However, not all liquidity flows equally into risk assets, according to researcher Amir Hajian from Keyrock.
The data shows Treasury bill issuance exhibits an 80% correlation with Bitcoin prices since 2021, leading them by about eight months. “When the Treasury ramps up Treasury bill issuance, it is financing spending that flows into the real economy, and eventually into risk assets like Bitcoin”, the author wrote. Meanwhile, the influence of institutions and ETFs has dampened Bitcoin’s sensitivity to these conditions by approximately 23%.
Consequently, this analysis contradicts the widespread theory that Fed interest rate policy is the main liquidity driver. The report forecasts global liquidity will impact Bitcoin prices in late 2026 and early 2027.
Global liquidity is now at a critical “inflection” point, according to Keyrock’s report. A looming wall of U.S. debt maturity, much of it needing refinancing at higher rates, will force significant action.
Therefore, the U.S. Treasury will likely ramp up issuance to roll over $38 trillion in maturing debt. “T-bill issuance is projected to reach and sustain $600 billion to $800 billion per year through 2028”, the Keyrock report concluded.
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