- Micron has commenced advanced 1α DRAM production at its Manassas, Virginia facility, setting its DDR4 output to quadruple by late 2026.
- The reversal of a planned phase-out is driven by DDR4 prices running roughly 40% higher than DDR5 equivalents, according to Nanya Technology, and acute shortages in long-lifecycle markets.
- While investors question if new supply will trigger a price correction, the company’s near-term MU stock forecast is heavily insulated by locked HBM4 contracts through 2026.
On May 22, Micron initiated a major production expansion in Manassas, Virginia, marking the first U.S. run of its most advanced DDR4-compatible 1α DRAM process. This $2 billion-plus investment, supported by CHIPS Act funding, aims to quadruple output specifically for automotive, industrial, and defense sectors where a severe “DDR4 supply shortage has been particularly acute.” The company had previously been winding down DDR4 production before a surprising profitability surge caused a strategic reversal.
Consequently, the move addresses a critical market gap where inventory buffers have reportedly fallen from over 31 weeks to just six to eight weeks. S&P Global Mobility estimated automotive DRAM contract prices could rise between 70% and 100% in 2026. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated this milestone strengthens domestic supply as part of Micron’s broader $200 billion U.S. investment plan, which will increase its stateside production share from 10% today to about 40% over the next decade.
However, this surge in planned capacity raises classic cyclical concerns about oversupply and a potential MU stock price correction. Financial commentator Di Xiang, who flagged the expansion on social media, cautioned that investors may shift focus to other AI supply chain segments. The broader analyst outlook remains bullish, with 18 buy ratings and zero sells tracked on Wall Street.
Meanwhile, the larger narrative for Micron centers on AI-driven HBM4 memory demand. Executive Vice President Manish Bhatia noted the HBM4 ramp is twice as fast as last year’s product, with accelerating yield improvements. The company has also secured its entire HBM4 output through 2026 with multi-year contracts, including integration into NVIDIA‘s Vera Rubin platform, which analysts say largely determines the stock’s trajectory.
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