- Michael Saylor predicts a hard fork could lower Bitcoin’s total supply from 21 million to about 16 million coins.
- The supply reduction would result from coins that remain “frozen” after owners fail to secure their assets against quantum computing threats.
- The hard fork would require holders of exposed public keys, including early adopters like Satoshi Nakamoto, to re-encrypt their coins to quantum-safe wallets.
- Coins not re-encrypted during a potential one to two-year notice period would become permanently inaccessible.
- This process would coincide with a global effort to upgrade digital security against quantum computing risks in all financial systems.
Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, discussed a potential future hard fork for Bitcoin that could reduce the cryptocurrency’s supply by up to 5 million coins. He made these remarks during an interview with Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn, focusing on the risks quantum computing poses to Bitcoin’s blockchain security.
Saylor suggested that this hard fork would address vulnerabilities by forcing owners of coins with exposed public keys—such as Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings—to migrate their assets to wallets protected against quantum computers. He estimates that this process could lower the total Bitcoin supply from the current cap of 21 million to an effective supply closer to 16 million.
Quantum computers threaten Bitcoin mainly by potentially deriving private keys from exposed public keys rather than through enhanced mining capabilities. Early Bitcoin transactions that used Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) outputs reveal public keys, making those coins a target for quantum attacks.
According to Saylor, affected holders would be given a one to two-year global notice period to “re-encrypt” their coins into quantum-safe wallets. Those who do not take action—due to loss of keys or death—would see their coins frozen and rendered permanently inaccessible. He described this outcome as a “massive deflationary event” and a way to determine the number of lost Bitcoins.
Saylor expects that as the global financial ecosystem upgrades to quantum-resistant security measures, Bitcoin will follow suit with similar protections. This upgrade would require a network-wide consensus and enforcement to ensure ongoing blockchain security.
For further reading on Bitcoin’s quantum risks, see Michael Saylor’s post and commentary by Nic Carter. Technical details on quantum effects on mining and encryption are covered in this scientific article.
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