- Lyn Alden sees no likelihood of a significant crash in Bitcoin or the crypto market currently.
- Alden challenges the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, attributing market trends to broader macro factors.
- Some experts, like Vineet Budki, predict notable retracements for Bitcoin in the coming years.
- Bitcoin has fallen from its October high but could reach $100,000 by 2026, according to Alden.
- Alden warns investors against assuming bull markets are guaranteed.
Lyn Alden, a macroeconomist, stated that a major crash in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market does not appear likely at this stage. In a recent episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast, she explained that the current cycle has not reached euphoric levels, reducing the chances of a major market capitulation.
Alden also dismissed the idea that Bitcoin operates strictly on a four-year cycle. She said the recent trend is driven more by wider macroeconomic factors and growing interest in the asset itself. This perspective aligns with comments from other industry figures like Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, who also rejected the four-year cycle theory and suggested the crypto market may see sustained growth over several years.
However, not all analysts share Alden’s optimism. Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, anticipates a Bitcoin pullback of around 65% to 70% within the next two years.
Alden pointed out that market results rarely meet investor expectations at the extremes. “It’s usually not as good as people expect and it’s usually not as bad as people expect is often how these things play out,” she said.
Bitcoin’s price peaked near $125,000 on October 5 but has since declined to around $85,700, according to data from CoinMarketCap. This drop occurred amid falling market sentiment, with some traders previously anticipating a year-end rally and even new price highs.
Addressing investor mindset, Alden emphasized that bull markets are not guaranteed. “No one is owed a bull market,” she said. She forecasts Bitcoin reclaiming the $100,000 level by 2026 and potentially hitting new all-time highs that year or in 2027.
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