- A user won $436,759 on a prediction that **Nicolás Maduro** would be removed before January 31.
- The wager was placed hours before U.S. forces took Maduro, raising insider-trading concerns.
- Rep. **Ritchie Torres** is drafting legislation to bar federal employees from using insider knowledge in prediction markets.
- Industry figures argue insider trading can improve prediction-market accuracy and information flow.
- Platforms are growing fast and face possible regulation; some countries already ban such markets.
A user won $436,759 after placing a bet on Polymarket predicting Nicolás Maduro would be removed before January 31, and the wager came hours before U.S. special forces apprehended Maduro. The timing prompted Representative Ritchie Torres to draft legislation that would bar federal employees from trading on prediction markets when they hold relevant insider information.
Industry figures defended the role of informed trading in prediction markets. Loxley Fernandes, CEO of DASTAN which owns Myriad, said “Academically speaking, prediction markets are one of the most effective tools for rooting out inside information and maximizing the efficiency and speed of information transmission.” He added that viewing these markets as casinos is incorrect and that insider trading can be “a feature, not a bug.”
Economist Robin Hanson offered a related view, saying the tradeoff in markets is between investment quantity and price accuracy. He noted “If what I care about in [prediction] markets is the accuracy of their prices, there isn’t such an issue here,” and that “To get more accurate prices, we want people with lots of info to trade.”
Still, the episode increases the chance of regulation. Fernandes said “I believe that it could result in enforcement and I believe that it should result in regulation,” while urging rules that recognize differences between prediction markets and stock markets.
Platforms are expanding into new areas and drawing scrutiny. Polymarket launched real-estate prediction markets this week, while such platforms are already banned in several European countries. Valuations have risen quickly: Polymarket was valued at about $9 billion after a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, and rival Kalshi reached an $11 billion valuation after a $1 billion funding round.
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