- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will reach $250,000 from continued global money printing rather than a single catalyst like a financial crisis.
- Hayes holds a 10-to-1 ratio of Bitcoin over Gold and focuses public equity on gold miners and Exxon Mobil.
- He warns Bitcoin could drop 75% and calls the AI buildout the biggest capex bubble in history.
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, predicts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $250,000 as policymakers prioritize liquidity over allowing a 2008-style credit event tied to the booming Artificial Intelligence sector. “We’re not going to get sort of a 2008-sized credit event, but we’re just going to continue print, print and print,” Hayes said on Anthony Pompliano’s podcast.
The Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, Japan, China, and Europe are all easing to avoid a coordinated global credit event. Hayes stated this isn’t an adoption story but one of liquidity, as policymakers will print early and often rather than let firms fail over their support for the AI buildout.
Hayes confirmed his portfolio is heavily tilted toward cryptocurrency, with a 10-to-1 split in favor of Bitcoin over gold. He also holds Exxon Mobil, arguing that energy is materially underweighted in global equity benchmarks.
Despite the bullish prediction, Hayes was explicit about the risk, stating “Bitcoin could go down 75%. You never know.” He advised investors to cover every channel money might be pushed into, as no asset is safe from a severe downturn.
Hayes explained that Bitcoin has underperformed because the marginal dollar has gone to AI, with heavy AI-related debt crowding out both Bitcoin and government bond markets. He expects this flow to reverse as liquidity is deployed to roll over AI debt and questions about returns on capital in the sector grow.
Hayes noted that the 30-year yield has moved back to near 4.70% after each attempt, and that 5% is a level policymakers will not accept. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was recently criticized for highlighting the fiscal problem without fixing it, which might make it easier for the Treasury to justify further action.
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