- Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio dropped to about 18.5 ounces per BTC, the lowest level since November 2023.
- Gold reached a record near $4,888 while BTC struggled to hold above $90,000.
- Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments highlighted a 100-year gold bull average that could imply prices near $12,000 in 3–10 years.
- Decode argues the BTC/gold pair may be in the fifth wave of a corrective C-wave, which often signals the final stage of a downtrend.
- Bitwise research head André Dragosch called the setup “very rare,” saying Bitcoin trades at a steep relative discount and that capital rotation back to BTC could emerge in Q1 2026.
The BTC/gold ratio weakened sharply on Wednesday as a strong gold rally pushed prices to about $4,888 while Bitcoin traded around $90,000, creating pressure on Bitcoin’s relative performance. Analysts cited historical gold cycles, technical wave analysis, and macro capital flows to explain the shift and its potential implications.
The BTC/gold ratio measures how many ounces of gold buy one Bitcoin; it fell to roughly 18.5, the lowest since November 2023. Charting and market data illustrate the move on the BTC/Gold one-day chart.
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards highlighted long-term gold cycles in a post, noting that 100-year gold bull markets have averaged more than 150% gains and that, if that pattern repeats, gold could reach about $12,000 in three to ten years; see his commentary on X.
Crypto analyst Decode suggested the BTC/gold pair may be showing signs of trend exhaustion using Elliott wave theory, describing a move into the fifth wave of a corrective C-wave. Decode posted this wave analysis and accompanying chart on X.
André Dragosch, head of research for Bitwise in Europe, framed the situation as a macro contrarian signal and said Bitcoin looks cheap versus gold. Dragosch posted his view and noted the rarity of these conditions on X, and his profile is available on X. He described the setup as “very rare” and said Bitcoin “hasn’t caught a serious bid due to its perceived higher risk.”
Dragosch argued that capital has flowed to gold first amid structural monetary shifts and that sequential rotation could send funds into Bitcoin later, potentially acting as a tailwind for a future BTC price expansion.
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