- Gold reached a record price of $4,381 per ounce, outperforming Bitcoin in the past year.
- Gold’s price jumped 60.5% over the last 12 months, while Bitcoin rose 60% and remains 15% below its previous high.
- Trading platforms show most traders do not expect Bitcoin to surpass $100,000 in the near term.
- Gold’s market capitalization is about 14 times that of Bitcoin, standing at $29.7 trillion versus $2.1 trillion.
- Gold outperformed Bitcoin across major short-term timeframes in 2025, including weekly and monthly periods.
Gold outperformed Bitcoin over the past year, hitting a new all-time high of $4,381 per ounce. The increase happened despite gold’s much larger size compared to Bitcoin. Traders on major betting platforms show limited confidence in Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 by the end of October.
According to market data, gold’s 12-month rally reached 60.5%. In comparison, Bitcoin achieved a 60% increase but remains 15% below its own peak price. On the Polymarket platform, the highest probability for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by Halloween stands at 42%. The Kalshi marketplace shows a 64% chance that Bitcoin will stay under $100,000 this year.
Gold’s total market capitalization is valued at $29.7 trillion based on the World Gold Council’s 2025 report, which estimates global gold reserves at 216,265 metric tonnes. This positions gold at 14 times the value of Bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap. Additional estimates suggest that gold holdings could be even higher, citing undisclosed reserves in countries like China or Russia.
Across several timeframes in 2025, gold outpaced Bitcoin. Over the past week, gold rose 6% while Bitcoin declined by 11%. Throughout the month, gold increased by 16% as Bitcoin dropped 7%. Since the start of the year, gold has gained 62% compared to Bitcoin’s 12%. Over the last 12 months, gold’s growth slightly surpassed Bitcoin by 0.5%.
The idea that Bitcoin could replace gold as a form of wealth became popular among some investors because Bitcoin solves key limitations of gold, such as being easier to divide or move. Still, gold continues to serve as a global reserve asset and holds a much larger market size. While Bitcoin has shown strong gains since its launch 17 years ago, gold’s recent performance demonstrates its ongoing relevance in financial markets.
For more details on trader sentiment, see the active predictions on Polymarket and Kalshi, and for further context, refer to the estimated global gold reserves from recent analysis.
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