- Gold crashed to a four-month low of $4,098, posting its worst five-session performance since February 1983.
- A hawkish Federal Reserve, stronger dollar, and easing Iran tensions triggered the historic gold price crash.
- Despite the plunge, major banks maintain long-term gold price targets between $5,000 and $6,300 by year-end 2026.
- Prominent analysts, including Ed Yardeni, defend a long-term gold price target of $10,000 by the decade’s end.
Gold experienced a historic crash this week, plummeting to a four-month low near $4,098 and erasing 2025’s gains. However, a surprising rebound occurred after former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social about constructive U.S.-Iran talks. Consequently, the metal bounced nearly $400 off its lows within hours in London trading.
The dramatic fall was driven by a hawkish Federal Reserve, a stronger U.S. dollar, and signs of de-escalation in the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, other precious metals like silver and platinum followed gold down sharply. Strategists cite short-term sensitivity to higher interest rates and portfolio rebalancing for the sell-off.
Nevertheless, major institutions are defending their long-term outlooks. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research stated, “We are sticking with $10,000 by the end of the decade.” Justin Lin from Global X ETFs acknowledged the sell-off but emphasized the broader backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and central bank demand.
Natasha Kaneva at J.P. Morgan expects demand to push prices toward $5,000 by 2026, while Peter Schiff drew parallels to the 2008 crisis. Central banks bought 863 net tonnes in 2025, providing structural support. The future trajectory now hinges on rate expectations and dollar movement from here.
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