- SpaceX may file for its record-breaking IPO as soon as this week, targeting a listing in June that could raise over $75 billion.
- Analyst Gary Black warns the outsized offering could prompt Tesla (TSLA) investors to sell shares to fund participation, creating potential selling pressure.
- The most likely scenario is seen as a “clean” IPO with no plans to acquire Tesla, easing concerns over shareholder dilution.
- Retail investor participation is expected to be unusually high, with individuals potentially receiving over 20% of the offered shares.
- SpaceX’s valuation is estimated at roughly $1.5 trillion following its recent merger with xAI.
SpaceX, the aerospace company led by Elon Musk, is reportedly preparing to file for an initial public offering this week or next, targeting a potential June listing that could become the largest in U.S. history. The mammoth float, which advisers expect could raise more than $75 billion, would exceed the proceeds from all U.S. listings last year combined. Consequently, this seismic market event has direct implications for investors in Musk’s other flagship company, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA).
Tesla shares rose nearly 1% in after-hours trading following the report. However, Future Fund managing partner Gary Black warned on X that the scale of the offering could influence Tesla stock. He stated, “TSLA shareholders that want to participate in the SpaceX IPO would sell some of their TSLA shares to fund their SpaceX investment.” Black emphasized that expectations of a post-IPO acquisition of Tesla are unfounded.
Meanwhile, Black argued the most probable outcome is a “clean” SpaceX IPO at a staggering $1.5 trillion valuation. By declaring “no current plans” to acquire Tesla, the offering would support investor demand and reduce litigation risk. This follows his earlier warning that a merger could imply significant downside for Tesla shareholders under the “lowest-multiple rule.”
SpaceX was last valued at about $1.25 trillion after merging with xAI, with both SpaceX and Tesla investing $2 billion. The company has also explored potential combinations with both Tesla and xAI, adding complexity. The final valuation and offering size will be determined closer to pricing, with major banks preparing the groundwork.
Retail sentiment on platforms like Stocktwits toward SpaceX was ‘bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume. Conversely, sentiment toward Tesla and xAI was ‘bearish.’ Musk has pushed for broad retail participation, with individuals potentially receiving more than 20% of IPO shares.
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