- The Federal Reserve is now projected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month after the August jobs report showed 162,000 jobs added, nearly tripling the 53,000 economists expected.
- Fed Governor Michael Barr supports a rate hike unless inflation shows convincing signs of easing, while Chair Kevin Warsh warned at the Jackson Hole symposium that further hikes may be needed.
- President Donald Trump is publicly pressuring the Fed to cut rates, threatening trade actions, but the upcoming inflation report will be the ultimate deciding factor.
The Federal Reserve is now projected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs last month, well above the 53,000 economists anticipated. The strong labor data has shifted expectations ahead of the next inflation report, which analysts are closely watching.
Fed Governor Michael Barr stated he and the central bank would back a rate hike unless inflation shows convincing signs of easing soon. The current federal funds rate target range stands at 3.50% to 3.75%, while benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rates average approximately 6.66% to 6.68%. Last week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium that policymakers would “have work to do” if they lacked confidence inflation was returning to the 2% target. Amid fresh worries over the US-Iran war, yields jumped again Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year note hitting its highest level since January 2025.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is again pressuring the Fed to cut rates after the jobs report, threatening to cut off trade with several countries if the central bank does not budge. Trump touted the “great” jobs numbers Friday before turning his attention to the Fed, posting on Truth Social: “A STRONG COUNTRY MEANS A LOWER INTEREST RATE – IT’S A BETTER CREDIT.” He added, “LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT.” However, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is backed by Trump, and that could change the way the Fed maneuvers its upcoming meeting. The upcoming inflation report will be the ultimate decider for which way the Fed moves regarding changing interest rates.
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