- Santiment says crypto is lagging other major assets heading into 2026 but still has room to “play catch-up” (Santiment post).
- Since early November, Gold is up about 9%, the S&P 500 is up about 1%, and Bitcoin is down about 20%, trading near $88,000 (CoinGecko).
- Large holders slowed accumulation in the second half of 2025 while small wallets bought aggressively, and long-term holders reduced supply from 14.8 million to 14.3 million coins (Santiment data).
- On-chain signals show mixed activity: active Bitcoin addresses rose 5.51% while transactions fell nearly 30%, which some traders read as early rotation back into crypto (Nansen; Garrett Jin; CyrilXBT).
Analysts at Santiment posted on X that crypto markets are still trailing other major sectors and may continue to lag into 2026, though there is “an opportunity for crypto to play catch-up” (Santiment post). Since early November, gold has risen about 9% and the S&P 500 about 1%, while Bitcoin has fallen roughly 20% and traded near $88,000 on Wednesday (CoinGecko).
Santiment also noted wallet behavior shifts in 2025: “The second half of 2025 was dominated by aggressive accumulation by the small wallets, while large wallets essentially stayed flat, rising up to the Oct ATH, then selling.” Large holders, often called whales, are private or institutional accounts that hold substantial token amounts and can influence markets. “Historically, the best recipe for a bear pattern to flip to a bullish one is when large wallets accumulate, and retail dumps.” (Santiment data).
Long-term Bitcoin holders decreased their holdings from about 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million in December, then paused selling. Former BitForex CEO Garrett Jin suggested traders may be shifting capital back into crypto, saying “The short squeeze in metals is over as expected. Capital is beginning to flow into crypto.” and “Capital is the same. Always sell high and buy low.” (Garrett Jin).
On-chain analytics firm Nansen reports active Bitcoin addresses rose 5.51% in the last 24 hours while transaction volume fell nearly 30% (Nansen). Active addresses are unique wallet addresses that engaged in transactions during a set period. Market commentator CyrilXBT described the market as in a late-cycle setup before a potential rotation, writing “When liquidity turns and BTC breaks structure: Gold cools, BTC leads, ETH follows, Alts finally wake up. The market always moves before the narrative does. Stay patient. This phase is designed to test conviction.” (CyrilXBT).
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