- Early Uber investor Jason Calacanis bought small positions in WeRide, PONY, LCID, and RIVN, betting all four get acquired within 24 months.
- He expects the four investments, as a group, to double in less than two years.
- WeRide and Pony.ai are expanding robotaxi services with Uber across Europe.
- Lucid and Rivian have landed major robotaxi fleet orders from Uber and Bolt.
Early Uber investor Jason Calacanis has taken small positions in autonomous-vehicle companies WeRide, Pony.ai, Lucid Group, and Rivian Automotive, predicting all four will be acquired within 24 months. He expects the group to double in value in under two years.
“Consolidation is coming to the autonomous space based on the massive progress that Tesla, Waymo, and Uber are making,” Calacanis said on X. “I believe these four companies are going to be bought in the next 24 months and I expect, as a group, that I will 2x my investment in under two years.”
He called the trades “tiny bets” and said he considers them one to four-year investments, unlike his typical 10-plus-year holdings. Calacanis noted he has other autonomy investments, including private companies Zipline and Autolane.
Last week, reacting to Lucid’s new European fleet deal, he predicted: “All car companies are now going to become Robotaxi companies!”
WeRide and Pony.ai are expanding robotaxi operations with Uber. WeRide recently received Spain‘s first national operating permit for Level 4 autonomous passenger vehicles, with a Madrid robotaxi service planned.
Pony.ai has an expanded Uber agreement covering more than 2,000 robotaxis across five European cities. Its fleet reached 1,975 robotaxis in the second quarter, targeting over 3,500 by year-end.
Lucid gained a second major fleet customer when European mobility platform Bolt said it aims to deploy at least 25,000 autonomous vehicles on Lucid’s Midsize platform. Uber has separately committed to at least 35,000 Lucid robotaxis.
Rivian‘s Uber agreement covers 10,000 fully autonomous R2 SUVs beginning in 2028, with an option for 40,000 more. Uber plans to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, subject to autonomy milestones.
Tesla has begun deploying Cybercabs in Austin, while Alphabet’s Waymo continues expanding its driverless service. Baidu said its Apollo Go vehicles are conducting fully driverless tests on Hong Kong roads.
All four of Calacanis’s picks are down this year: RIVN 23%, WRD 32%, PONY 50%, and LCID 59%.
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