- Bitcoin’s price action remains consistent with historical four-year cycles as it interacts with key long-term trend lines.
- Analysis shows BTC is currently undervalued by roughly 20% relative to its four-year adoption structure, trading below a $76,400 target.
- Estimates suggest the ongoing bear market is approximately 71% complete, with potential for downside continuation if key support levels fail.
Recent research reveals Bitcoin continues to follow its classic cyclical patterns, acting compressed near crucial trend lines as it navigates the latter stages of a bear market. Analyst David Eng noted in an X post on Wednesday that BTC price action still “runs on two clocks,” filtering out short-term noise to reveal a long-term adoption structure.
Eng’s analysis focuses on the 400-day simple moving average and a four-year trend line. The 400-day SMA has provided consistent support during bull markets, with no daily closes below it this cycle or last.
Consequently, Bitcoin’s current position below the four-year trend line suggests it is undervalued. This long-term structure indicates a fair value target of around $76,400, putting BTC/USD roughly 20% below that level.
“The point is that Bitcoin keeps stretching away from this adoption structure and then reverting back toward it,” Eng summarized. He concluded that “$BTC is not broken” but is merely “compressed below its adoption structure.”
Meanwhile, historical comparisons suggest the bear market phase has further to run. Estimates from trader Rekt Capital place the current downtrend at approximately 71% complete.
His analysis centers on the 50-month exponential moving average, currently at $63,900. A monthly close near $62,000 could confirm a breakdown from this key level.
“Then August would cancel out July and send Bitcoin into downside continuation,” Rekt Capital told X followers. This scenario hinges on whether July sees a green monthly close that turns the 50 EMA into new resistance.
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