- Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains influential but may be changing due to institutional activity.
- Price fluctuations are still driven largely by investor sentiment and follow recurring cycles.
- October could mark a new cycle peak if historical patterns continue, according to analysts.
- Bitcoin’s price recently rose 11.5%, nearing its all-time high of $124,100.
- Fourth quarter has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest, with an average return of 79.39% since 2013.
The future of Bitcoin’s four-year price cycle is in question as industry voices discuss whether historical patterns will hold in 2024. At the Token2049 event in Singapore, Saad Ahmed, the head of Asia Pacific at Gemini crypto exchange, said the market cycle likely continues but could change as more institutional players enter the space.
Ahmed explained that the market’s behavior tends to follow a pattern: enthusiasm and speculative action push prices up, followed by a correction to more balanced levels. He attributed these ups and downs to human emotion, noting that while volatility may decrease with increased institutional involvement, cycles are still expected.
“It ultimately stems from people get really excited and overextend themselves, and then you kind of see a crash, and then it kind of corrects to an equilibrium,” Ahmed said in an interview with Cointelegraph. He added, “You’ll see kind of some of the volatility, kind of a flag off, but you’ll still see some sort of a cycle, because ultimately, it’s driven by, you know, by human emotion.”
Debate continues within the industry about the ongoing relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Crypto analytics firm Glassnode has suggested that bitcoin’s recent price moves may still correspond with the asset’s traditional “halving cycle,” where mining rewards are halved every four years, affecting supply and, historically, price.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that if current trends mirror 2020, Bitcoin could see a cycle peak this October, which would be roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving event. “We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt Capital said.
Bitcoin’s price jumped 11.5% over the past week, reaching $123,850, just under its all-time high of $124,100 set on August 14, according to CoinMarketCap. Despite this, Matt Hougan of Bitwise stated he does not expect Bitcoin to strictly follow past cycles, expressing a positive outlook for the coming years. “I bet 2026 is an up year,” Hougan said on social media.
The start of October ushered in the fourth quarter, which has been the strongest period for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average return of 79.39%, according to CoinGlass.
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